Momentum ETF vs široký trh

Momentum se dá koupit i jako balíček – ETF, která faktor systematicky sledují. Tady vidíte, jestli svou práci dělají: kompletní přehled včetně evropského a emerging markets momenta, v grafu proti S&P 500 a MSCI World (čárkovaně). Kliknutím na název otevřete detail fondu.

Momentum ETF a benchmarkyAktualizováno 23. 10. 2026 · ETF stavěná na momentum faktoru vs široký trh (čárkovaně). Výnosy v měně fondu. · Kliknutím na záhlaví seřadíte.
SPMO – S&P 500 MomentumSPMO · USD -9,5 % -3,4 % +3,5 % +14,9 %▲ nad průměrem
MTUM – MSCI USA MomentumMTUM · USD -10,4 % -3,2 % +1,9 % +14,6 %▲ nad průměrem
XSMO – S&P SmallCap MomentumXSMO · USD -5,9 % -9,2 % -9,5 % +10,4 %▼ pod průměrem
XMMO – S&P MidCap MomentumXMMO · USD -10,9 % -12,4 % -15,6 % -0,2 %▼ pod průměrem
FMTM – Focused U.S. MomentumFMTM · USD -0,3 % +2,5 % -1,1 % +25,3 %▲ nad průměrem
IDMO – Intl Developed MomentumIDMO · USD -6,0 % -4,1 % -0,9 % +11,8 %▲ nad průměrem
IEMO – Europe Momentum (UCITS)IEMO.MI · EUR -1,5 % -2,3 % +0,7 % +11,1 %▲ nad průměrem
PIE – Emerging Markets MomentumPIE · USD -7,6 % +8,7 % +4,9 % +35,4 %▲ nad průměrem
EEMO – S&P EM MomentumEEMO · USD -14,5 % +0,7 % -2,2 % +12,6 %▼ pod průměrem
USA (S&P 500) · benchmarkSPY · USD -1,3 % +2,0 % +6,0 % +12,6 %▲ nad průměrem
Svět (MSCI World) · benchmarkURTH · USD -1,2 % +0,9 % +5,0 % +12,5 %▲ nad průměrem
Momentum ETF vs benchmarky od 1. 1. 2024 (indexováno na 100)ETF stavěná na momentum faktoru vs široký trh (čárkovaně). Výnosy v měně fondu.
Zobrazit data v tabulce
DatumSPMO – S&P 500 MomentumMTUM – MSCI USA MomentumXSMO – S&P SmallCap MomentumXMMO – S&P MidCap MomentumFMTM – Focused U.S. MomentumIDMO – Intl Developed MomentumUSA (S&P 500)Svět (MSCI World)
2024-01-01100100100100–100100100
2024-01-08103.11104.52101.12102.99–101.48101.87101.58
2024-01-15105.29107.82102.52105.27–101.42103.1102.12
2024-01-22106.99109.51103.33106.65–102.02104.17103.22
2024-01-29111.88113.27103.48111.18–103.8105.65104.27
2024-02-05114.55116.92105.95115.38–104.59107.11105.38
2024-02-12115.5116.21106.87117.79–106.07106.75105.49
2024-02-19118.1117.96106.99120.06–108.62108.53107.24
2024-02-26121.41122.17108.26123.6–110.15109.6108.16
2024-03-04121.88121.63107.01128.1–113.07109.36108.57
2024-03-11121.24119.59105.72126.99–112.45109.3108.31
2024-03-18124.9123.66109.34131.33–115.82111.73110.35
2024-03-25123.96122.85111.14131.8–115.87112.13110.74
2024-04-01124.31123109.21131.05–114.19111.14109.71
2024-04-08122.57120.58106.26126.84–112.07109.51107.74
2024-04-15115.6113.82103.94122.33–108.68106.15104.93
2024-04-22119.08117.82107.9126.1–110.5108.96107.6
2024-04-29120.25118.09109.72128.62–112.12109.61108.34
2024-05-06122.92121.06111.68132.59–112.15111.66110.33
2024-05-13124.78122.88112.3132.67–113.56113.5112.13
2024-05-20127.2124.97113.15133.44–114.24113.5111.81
2024-05-27125.81122.35113.72131.5–114113.06111.35
2024-06-03129.63124.12110.79128.69–114.22114.48112.36
2024-06-10135.1127.78109.71129.39–112.51116.36112.92
2024-06-17134.99128.27110.02131.01–111.85117.11113.42
2024-06-24135.25127.91110.75130.86–114.46117.04113.63
2024-07-01139.44130.35110.03129.73–117.18119.28115.94
2024-07-08139.17130.84115.82134.24–118.12120.44117.41
2024-07-15133.54125.5118132.63–115.18118.07114.93
2024-07-22131.02123.46123.25135.78–113.6117.09114.12
2024-07-29127.12117.76114.95129.57–108.06114.61111.41
2024-08-05129.31121.2114.18129.73–109.64114.63111.73
2024-08-12136.69127.91116.87133.1–115.52119.21116.11
2024-08-19138.58129.88121.54137.65–118.54120.9118.49
2024-08-26138.02129.55121.5135.88–119.09121.23118.78
2024-09-02129.78122.11113.79127.24–112.33116.21113.83
2024-09-09137.76129.15118.73133.88–116.49120.87117.98
2024-09-16140132.31121.74137.49–118.21122.59119.5
2024-09-23139.81132.84121.71137.76–117.22123.28120.66
2024-09-30141.9134.04122.46139.03–115.74123.61120.44
2024-10-07144.97136.4123.11141.37–117.16125.03121.37
2024-10-14145.59137.7124.63143.48–118.28126.11122.03
2024-10-21143.45135.34121.43138.65–114.68124.91120.3
2024-10-28141.48132.68120.86139.42–114.71123.19118.91
2024-11-04149.95140.67133.63149.99–116.72129.05123.17
2024-11-11145.32137.09129.91146.97–115.16126.36120.69
2024-11-18147.92141.37134.6154.38–116.94128.47122.69
2024-11-25149.86142.43135.25155.5–118.42129.99124.14
2024-12-02152.75143.11132.26154.19–120.51131.12125.54
2024-12-09151.31140.96129.02150.22–119.01130.34124.3
2024-12-16147.92138.03123143.24–113.23127.96121.29
2024-12-23149.79138.85122.98143.27–114.53128.79122.25
2024-12-30150.25139.45124.09144.94–113.84128.13121.77
2025-01-06148.22136.57120.31142.27–113.02125.65119.65
2025-01-13152.98143.47127.24149.2–115.32129.35122.87
2025-01-20157.14147.21128.4152.27–119.9131.6125.46
2025-01-27155.14144.65128.55150.28–119.29130.27124.62
2025-02-03158.22148.44127.85149.3–121.02130.04124.57
2025-02-10159.82150.7126.77147.63–123.15131.97126.87
2025-02-17154.94145.17120.79139.18–122.25129.86125.1
2025-02-24154.77144.18121.18140.56–122.81128.61124.11
2025-03-03146.61134.89115.07133.2–125.86124.66122.28
2025-03-10145.55133.33113.97131.15–124.91121.82119.81
2025-03-17146.11135.49114.75132.26100126122.44120.41
2025-03-24143.24132.93113.13130.48100.62124.89120.64118.59
2025-03-31127.9119.89105.51119.0694.92113.48109.7108.01
2025-04-07139.55129.75108.87125.5697.52121.49115.92113.96
2025-04-14137.13129.28109.67126.4797.73125.81114.29113.77
2025-04-21146.08136.85113.98131.598.26130.37119.55118.72
2025-04-28151.95143.2118.35137.74101.55134.02123.05121.95
2025-05-05153.01143.75118.79138.54101.44134.13122.52121.61
2025-05-12163.45152.66124.3145.33102.51136.44129126.83
2025-05-19159.8149.39120.89141.84101.91138.94125.73124.85
2025-05-26163.68153.23122.49143.37103.01140.23127.96126.68
2025-06-02166.12154.03124.09146.58103.82142.67130.08128.65
2025-06-09164.94152.39121.73142.99103.19140.12129.61127.99
2025-06-16166.11152.73122.99143.65103.21139.5129.4127.43
2025-06-23174.11157.64126.8148.6105.38144.4133.89131.78
2025-06-30175.15158.74129.17151.04106.67143.81136.17133.56
2025-07-07174.62156.67128.03149.56104.94143.78135.79132.97
2025-07-14177.21158.54127.38151.67106.42144.4136.65133.51
2025-07-21179.08160.01127.4152.78108.24146.7138.73135.81
2025-07-28176.27158.35124.92148.97106.83143.44135.38132.07
2025-08-04182.44162.91127.31150.48107.95147.81138.74135.72
2025-08-11182.63162.38130.86150.22107.88150.3140.11137.35
2025-08-18181.38161.59135.18152.2108.9151.6140.51138.01
2025-08-25181.33161.63135.18151.8109.4149.76140.46137.48
2025-09-01182.22162.01136.32154.56111.43150.07140.93137.91
2025-09-08187.56168.12136.21156.14116.29152.37143.15140.11
2025-09-15189.82170.71136.45155.81120.49152.17144.92141.51
2025-09-22188.01169.28136.6155.93117.2151.89144.51140.93
2025-09-29187.25169.02137.18156.83121.23154.57146.12143.05
2025-10-06184.77166.16131.98153.68115.3150.36142.59139.29
2025-10-13187.76168.04135.16155.22119.29150.19145.07141.98
2025-10-20189.78169.84138.02159.13122.32152.12147.88144.05
2025-10-27189.76168.99133.6157.54125.65153.32148.93144.63
2025-11-03184.82164.97133.95158.03125.79153.35146.51142.7
2025-11-10183.73163.57132.27155.36123.75154.51146.72143.19
2025-11-17178.22158.09130.86152.81119.37149.73143.9140.06
2025-11-24187.3166.35137.44161.37128.03155.11149.22145.12
2025-12-01188.43168.04136.81160.51127.34155.82149.72145.84
2025-12-08185.71165.82139.21161.22126.87158.75148.86145.46
2025-12-15186.38167.47137.81162.39129.23161.31149.05145.92
2025-12-22189.72169.99139.38164.21131.6162.87151.17147.99
2025-12-29187.05168.45136.15162.93132.26163.54149.61146.97
2026-01-05187.61171.29139.94163.97136.35165.08152149.35
2026-01-12187.57172.22144.52166.1140.4166.41151.47149.09
2026-01-19184.31170.29143.69164.04140.1167.08150.94148.82
2026-01-26187.36170.56142.4162.76140.88167.98151.54149.42
2026-02-02187.32168.96150.14170.15144.07169.79151.24149.91
2026-02-09184.83167.62148.81169.63144.35169.64149.3149.24
2026-02-16187.5169.82148.81173.31147.8174.15150.98150.65
2026-02-23186.74168.61149.05174.1148.69174.15150.23150.38
2026-03-02184.81160.96142.57167.15136.83164.12147.25145.76
2026-03-09181.59162.26140.07165.74135.28159.7145.04143.22
2026-03-16177.84161.13137.7164.66134.83154.03142.42140.26
2026-03-23172.91157.28140.3166.53136.23154.72139.24138.23
2026-03-30179.85164.01145.42171.57142.14163.28144.02143.19
2026-04-06193.33175.75152.94180.92146.31172.98149.2148.44
2026-04-13201.11183.1158.61184.5152.27175.7155.94154.28
2026-04-20206.15187.4160.78186.26155.48170.99156.78153.87
2026-04-27210.7190.19162.95186.23159.11173.01158.25155.04
2026-05-04225.42201.34163.12192.41160.98176.87161.98158.1
2026-05-11224.9198.99158.55190.46163.78172.22162.32157.53
2026-05-18227.19202.54160.99191.55160.81174.59163.74159.6
2026-05-25236.05210.69164.86196.25162.47176.6166.12161.48
2026-06-01226.15204.46161.04191.35160.99169.04161.96157.9
2026-06-08239.01216.42167.83197.22165.69174.76162.88159.42
2026-06-15250.64226.09168.32199.72169.94179.67164.4160.82
2026-06-22242.07217.55170.65194.47165.7175.63160.49156.56
2026-06-29236.78211.4169.44189.9162.23177.31163.97160.75
2026-07-06241.37214.9166.94188162.59177.22166.21162.32
2026-07-13225.89201.76164.4182.84153.23173.77163.64160.16
2026-07-20230204.63163.82186.56153.35176.1162.68159.35
2026-07-27225.8200.09162.52179.6153.55178.78164.47161.32
2026-08-03234.99206.59166.16188.55156.71184.88170.24166.96
2026-08-10240.68211.86167.82192.24159.75186.41170.92167.54
2026-08-17233.49203.81161.19182.86154.93185.29168.58165.84
2026-08-24230.43200.17157.63178.29157.1184.38169.38166.13
2026-08-31235.04203.61159.3179.58155.63187169.56166.44
2026-09-07232.83205.06156.88177.13151.51185.32168.27164.75
2026-09-14234.24207.2153.94172.02154.76181.87168.11164.02
2026-09-21240.46213.15155.29172.26155.54183.28170.24165.58
2026-09-28240.94216.08156.81176.54157.89182.31169.86164.62
2026-10-05237.69214.15153.43173.49163.01178.36171.83165.9
2026-10-12221.54196.19147.35162.91153.11174.81168.45163.68
2026-10-19218.29193.12147.61157.67156.47172.02168.61163.54
2026-10-23218.03193.7147.52157.28157.43171.43167.73162.74

Souboj faktorů: kdo právě vládne trhu

Momentum je jen jeden z „faktorů“ – mechanických pravidel výběru akcií, o kterých výzkum ví, že dlouhodobě nesou prémii. Každé vede v jiné fázi cyklu: růst a vysoká beta v euforii, kvalita a nízká volatilita v nejistotě, malé firmy při oživení, hodnota po výprodejích. Stejná mechanika jako u regionů a sektorů: výnosy, signál vůči 52týdennímu průměru, benchmark čárkovaně.

Nejsilnějším faktorem posledních tří měsíců je Nízká volatilita (+5,5 %). Nízká volatilita poráží vysokou betu – kapitál couvá do klidu.

Žebříček faktorů (řazeno podle 3M)Aktualizováno 23. 10. 2026 · Souboj investičních faktorů přes velká americká ETF vs S&P 500 (čárkovaně). Výnosy v USD. Řazeno podle 3M momenta. · Kliknutím na záhlaví seřadíte.
Nízká volatilita (USMV)USMV · USD +4,8 % +5,5 % +9,6 % +12,1 %▲ nad průměrem
Hodnota (VTV)VTV · USD +3,6 % +2,8 % +10,3 % +23,6 %▲ nad průměrem
Růst (VUG)VUG · USD -4,8 % +1,9 % +3,7 % +4,8 %▲ nad průměrem
Kvalita (QUAL)QUAL · USD -0,7 % +1,8 % +8,0 % +14,6 %▲ nad průměrem
Dividendy (VYM)VYM · USD +3,2 % +0,3 % +4,4 % +17,7 %▲ nad průměrem
Vysoká beta (SPHB)SPHB · USD -12,2 % -2,7 % +0,7 % +18,9 %▲ nad průměrem
Momentum (MTUM)MTUM · USD -10,4 % -3,2 % +1,9 % +14,6 %▲ nad průměrem
Malé firmy (IWM)IWM · USD -2,1 % -5,1 % -0,8 % +13,1 %▲ nad průměrem
USA (S&P 500) · benchmarkSPY · USD -1,3 % +2,0 % +6,0 % +12,6 %▲ nad průměrem
Vybrané faktory vs S&P 500 od 1. 1. 2024 (indexováno na 100)V grafu pětice s největší vypovídací hodnotou (momentum, růst, malé firmy a protipóly vysoká beta / nízká volatilita); kompletní žebříček je v tabulce.
Zobrazit data v tabulce
DatumMomentum (MTUM)Růst (VUG)Malé firmy (IWM)Nízká volatilita (USMV)Vysoká beta (SPHB)USA (S&P 500)
2024-01-01100100100100100100
2024-01-08104.52103.7899.99101.22100.57101.87
2024-01-15107.82106.1799.58101.95101.73103.1
2024-01-22109.51107.11101.41102.72102.84104.17
2024-01-29113.27109.24100.6103.2103.45105.65
2024-02-05116.92112.04103.15103.2105.2107.11
2024-02-12116.21110.57104.35103.34105.12106.75
2024-02-19117.96112.43103.44105.05104.87108.53
2024-02-26122.17114106.54105.05107.99109.6
2024-03-04121.63112.62107.03105.48108.31109.36
2024-03-11119.59112.17104.74105.56105.55109.3
2024-03-18123.66115.05106.39106.67109.14111.73
2024-03-25122.85114.36109.1107.81111.29112.13
2024-04-01123113.89106.06106.21107.99111.14
2024-04-08120.58113.41103.08103.79105.19109.51
2024-04-15113.82107.14100.2103.84101.4106.15
2024-04-22117.82111.36102.9104.4105.47108.96
2024-04-29118.09112.63104.74104.63104.86109.61
2024-05-06121.06114.23105.99106.95105.72111.66
2024-05-13122.88116.49107.95108.45107.68113.5
2024-05-20124.97118.1106.58107.09107.23113.5
2024-05-27122.35116.51106.75106.81105.51113.06
2024-06-03124.12119.98104.38107.18105.56114.48
2024-06-10127.78123.76103.38107.29106.53116.36
2024-06-17128.27124.06104.23108.92107.08117.11
2024-06-24127.91124.41105.55108.7107.34117.04
2024-07-01130.35128.85104.5108.9108.27119.28
2024-07-08130.84128.43110.88110.9112.39120.44
2024-07-15125.5123.46112.81110.88109.58118.07
2024-07-22123.46120.33116.65111.83108.49117.09
2024-07-29117.76117.63108.69112.49101.87114.61
2024-08-05121.2118.07107.41112.4102.5114.63
2024-08-12127.91124.13110.6115.08107.66119.21
2024-08-19129.88125.67114.65116.84110.38120.9
2024-08-26129.55124.93114.49118.23109.01121.23
2024-09-02122.11118.5108.16115.64101.45116.21
2024-09-09129.15124.96112.8118.25108.49120.87
2024-09-16132.31126.7115.27118.19111.73122.59
2024-09-23132.84127.33115.01118.43114.05123.28
2024-09-30134.04127.68114.4118.47113.54123.61
2024-10-07136.4129.48115.5119.65115.56125.03
2024-10-14137.7130.61117.79120.77115.68126.11
2024-10-21135.34130.71114.26118.34113.84124.91
2024-10-28132.68128.55114.31117110.78123.19
2024-11-04140.67135.91124.3121.55117.33129.05
2024-11-11137.09132.49119.27118.53112.34126.36
2024-11-18141.37134.56124.64121.54118.06128.47
2024-11-25142.43136.26126.26122.96118.53129.99
2024-12-02143.11140.96124.72121.63120.92131.12
2024-12-09140.96141.12121.66119.2118.9130.34
2024-12-16138.03139.14116.19116.84114.48127.96
2024-12-23138.85139.88116.43117.15115.28128.79
2024-12-30139.45138.89117.5116.4115.61128.13
2025-01-06136.57135.83113.52114.55113.48125.65
2025-01-13143.47138.69118.04117.38117.87129.35
2025-01-20147.21141.4119.73118.8120.48131.6
2025-01-27144.65139.51118.57120.12116.41130.27
2025-02-03148.44139.66118.32121.12116.42130.04
2025-02-10150.7142.56118.31121.43119.09131.97
2025-02-17145.17138.73114.03121.57115.89129.86
2025-02-24144.18135.3112.38123.55110.75128.61
2025-03-03134.89129.62107.83122.57104.99124.66
2025-03-10133.33126.16106.22120.18103.73121.82
2025-03-17135.49126.84106.93121.16104.7122.44
2025-03-24132.93123.69105.18121.58100.33120.64
2025-03-31119.89111.5395.08114.3286.99109.7
2025-04-07129.75120.2796.74117.9693.42115.92
2025-04-14129.28117.5897.85118.0492.77114.29
2025-04-21136.85125.71101.86119.05100.71119.55
2025-04-28143.2129.99105.2121.7104.79123.05
2025-05-05143.75129.47105.37120.78106.27122.52
2025-05-12152.66138.68110.11123.19115.71129
2025-05-19149.39135.03106.29121.16110.87125.73
2025-05-26153.23137.95107.61122.59112.27127.96
2025-06-02154.03140.9111.19122.9116.86130.08
2025-06-09152.39139.68109.61121.93116.14129.61
2025-06-16152.73139.39110.08120.77118.26129.4
2025-06-23157.64145.72113.38122.36124.27133.89
2025-06-30158.74147.75117.38123.87128.36136.17
2025-07-07156.67147.63116.65122.01129.61135.79
2025-07-14158.54149.89116.98122.28131.12136.65
2025-07-21160.01151.84118.06123.99132.69138.73
2025-07-28158.35148.77113.09121.48129.08135.38
2025-08-04162.91153.49115.93122.14129.68138.74
2025-08-11162.38154.46119.51123.03131.91140.11
2025-08-18161.59153.25123.56124.37134.17140.51
2025-08-25161.63153.31123.74124.01134.19140.46
2025-09-01162.01154.64125.11123.65134.69140.93
2025-09-08168.12157.62125.41123.85137.51143.15
2025-09-15170.71160.6128.21123.93141.52144.92
2025-09-22169.28159.27127.35124.86140.27144.51
2025-09-29169.02161.11129.72125.66143.53146.12
2025-10-06166.16157.43125.47124.13137.75142.59
2025-10-13168.04160.04128.44124.22142.4145.07
2025-10-20169.84163.85131.62124.8146.89147.88
2025-10-27168.99166.94129.93123.06147.54148.93
2025-11-03164.97162.13127.49122.81144.19146.51
2025-11-10163.57161.81125.31124.41141.66146.72
2025-11-17158.09157.26124.32123.75136.37143.9
2025-11-24166.35164.26131.26125.9145.09149.22
2025-12-01168.04165.35132.32124.91150.55149.72
2025-12-08165.82162.39133.95124.97151.5148.86
2025-12-15167.47163.5132.78124.82152.33149.05
2025-12-22169.99165.84133.11126.13153.57151.17
2025-12-29168.45162.87131.71124.19152.82149.61
2026-01-05171.29164.49137.78125.51157.93152
2026-01-12172.22162.5140.7125.21157.66151.47
2026-01-19170.29161.97140.2125.82156.73150.94
2026-01-26170.56161.31137.47125.97155.54151.54
2026-02-02168.96156.97140.31127.35157.92151.24
2026-02-09167.62153.42139.22127.56157.46149.3
2026-02-16169.82155.78140.09127.56159.69150.98
2026-02-23168.61154.39138.4129.71158.05150.23
2026-03-02160.96153.45132.83128.17151.86147.25
2026-03-09162.26150.82130.55126.08149.43145.04
2026-03-16161.13147.5128.47122.97148.44142.42
2026-03-23157.28141.65128.94121.33146139.24
2026-03-30164.01148.24133.28124.32150.38144.02
2026-04-06175.75154.64138.59123.51157.27149.2
2026-04-13183.1165.64146.27126.32169.7155.94
2026-04-20187.4167.51146.73125.28173.3156.78
2026-04-27190.19168.74148.12125.94174.08158.25
2026-05-04201.34174.74150.72125.21182.26161.98
2026-05-11198.99175.92147.23126.1177.74162.32
2026-05-18202.54176.14151.22129182.66163.74
2026-05-25210.69180.29154.04128.63193.03166.12
2026-06-01204.46172.9149.38127.35184.27161.96
2026-06-08216.42171.58155.38127.9191.34162.88
2026-06-15226.09175.02157.15125.88199.46164.4
2026-06-22217.55166.71159.4128.22193.84160.49
2026-06-29211.4172.23158.21130.76190.44163.97
2026-07-06214.9176.06157.36130.58192.5166.21
2026-07-13201.76171.77156.32129.04181.54163.64
2026-07-20204.63168.16154.8129.5181.81162.68
2026-07-27200.09171.63154.81130.81180.14164.47
2026-08-03206.59180.09160.32134.4190.51170.24
2026-08-10211.86179.97162.2135.09195.26170.92
2026-08-17203.81176.26159.47135.22191.29168.58
2026-08-24200.17178.35157.23135.9188.34169.38
2026-08-31203.61178.17157.37134.65191.13169.56
2026-09-07205.06177.31153.59133.06190.84168.27
2026-09-14207.2178.78151.43131.86189.95168.11
2026-09-21213.15183.19150.3131.79197.39170.24
2026-09-28216.08183.84150.06131.62199.69169.86
2026-10-05214.15185.45148.68134.73198.76171.83
2026-10-12196.19177.3144.15135.7179.6168.45
2026-10-19193.12175.77147.47138.72176.49168.61
2026-10-23193.7174.94146.98137.97175.35167.73

Momentum vs. hodnota: kontrariánská pojistka

Čistě „anti-momentum“ ETF na trhu prakticky neexistuje – a to samo o sobě je cenná informace. Fond, který systematicky sázel proti momentu (QuantShares MOM), zavřel pro chronickou ztrátovost; kdo chce být kontrarián pořád, dlouhodobě platí. Nejbližší investovatelný kontrarián je value faktor: kupuje to, co je levné, protože to zrovna nikdo nechce.

Poměr obou faktorů je proto užitečný jako systém včasného varování pro momentum samotné. Momentum má známou achillovku – „momentum crash“: když se trh otočí, nejvíc rostou právě loňští poražení (2009, rotace 2020/21) a trendové strategie dostávají největší výprask. Chvíle, kdy hodnota začne systematicky porážet momentum, je signál „režim se možná mění, věř trendovým tabulkám míň“. Nekupujeme tedy kontrariánský produkt, ale sledujeme kontrariánský signál – jediná forma kontrariánství, která momentum web posiluje, místo aby ho popírala.

Hodnota aktuálně poráží momentum – poměr faktorů je 3 týdny v kuse pod svým půlročním průměrem.

Momentum (MTUM) vs hodnota (VTV) od 1. 1. 2024 (indexováno na 100)Dva pohledy na stejný americký trh – liší se jen pravidlem výběru akcií: momentum kupuje, co roste, hodnota to, co je levné.
Zobrazit data v tabulce
DatumMomentum (MTUM)Hodnota (VTV)
2024-01-01100100
2024-01-08104.599.8
2024-01-15107.899.7
2024-01-22109.5101
2024-01-29113.3101.7
2024-02-05116.9101.9
2024-02-12116.2102.7
2024-02-19118104.3
2024-02-26122.2104.8
2024-03-04121.6105.7
2024-03-11119.6105.9
2024-03-18123.7107.9
2024-03-25122.8109.5
2024-04-01123108
2024-04-08120.6105.1
2024-04-15113.8104.9
2024-04-22117.8106.2
2024-04-29118.1106.1
2024-05-06121.1108.6
2024-05-13122.9110.1
2024-05-20125108.2
2024-05-27122.4108.4
2024-06-03124.1107.9
2024-06-10127.8107.7
2024-06-17128.3108.9
2024-06-24127.9108.6
2024-07-01130.4108.5
2024-07-08130.8111.2
2024-07-15125.5111.7
2024-07-22123.5113
2024-07-29117.8110.8
2024-08-05121.2110.6
2024-08-12127.9113.5
2024-08-19129.9115.4
2024-08-26129.6117
2024-09-02122.1113.3
2024-09-09129.2116
2024-09-16132.3117.6
2024-09-23132.8118.4
2024-09-30134118.8
2024-10-07136.4120
2024-10-14137.7121
2024-10-21135.3118.1
2024-10-28132.7117.2
2024-11-04140.7121.6
2024-11-11137.1119.8
2024-11-18141.4122.5
2024-11-25142.4123.7
2024-12-02143.1121.3
2024-12-09141119.1
2024-12-16138115.9
2024-12-23138.9116.8
2024-12-30139.5116.6
2025-01-06136.6114.8
2025-01-13143.5119.5
2025-01-20147.2121.3
2025-01-27144.6120.9
2025-02-03148.4120.6
2025-02-10150.7121.4
2025-02-17145.2120.7
2025-02-24144.2121.9
2025-03-03134.9119.4
2025-03-10133.3117.2
2025-03-17135.5118
2025-03-24132.9117.6
2025-03-31119.9108
2025-04-07129.8111.4
2025-04-14129.3111.3
2025-04-21136.9113.4
2025-04-28143.2116
2025-05-05143.7115.7
2025-05-12152.7119.2
2025-05-19149.4116.4
2025-05-26153.2118
2025-06-02154119.1
2025-06-09152.4119.3
2025-06-16152.7119.3
2025-06-23157.6121.6
2025-06-30158.7124.3
2025-07-07156.7123.4
2025-07-14158.5123
2025-07-21160125
2025-07-28158.3121.5
2025-08-04162.9123.2
2025-08-11162.4124.8
2025-08-18161.6127
2025-08-25161.6126.8
2025-09-01162126.3
2025-09-08168.1128
2025-09-15170.7128.5
2025-09-22169.3129.1
2025-09-29169130.5
2025-10-06166.2127.2
2025-10-13168129.1
2025-10-20169.8130.9
2025-10-27169129.2
2025-11-03165129.5
2025-11-10163.6130.2
2025-11-17158.1129
2025-11-24166.3132.5
2025-12-01168132.4
2025-12-08165.8133.9
2025-12-15167.5133.1
2025-12-22170134.8
2025-12-29168.5134.8
2026-01-05171.3137.6
2026-01-12172.2138.7
2026-01-19170.3138.2
2026-01-26170.6139.7
2026-02-02169144.3
2026-02-09167.6144.1
2026-02-16169.8144.7
2026-02-23168.6144.9
2026-03-02161139.9
2026-03-09162.3137.9
2026-03-16161.1136
2026-03-23157.3135.9
2026-03-30164138.5
2026-04-06175.7141.5
2026-04-13183.1143.6
2026-04-20187.4143.1
2026-04-27190.2144.8
2026-05-04201.3145.6
2026-05-11199145.3
2026-05-18202.5148.3
2026-05-25210.7149
2026-06-01204.5149.1
2026-06-08216.4152.6
2026-06-15226.1152.2
2026-06-22217.6154.3
2026-06-29211.4154.9
2026-07-06214.9154.9
2026-07-13201.8154
2026-07-20204.6156.2
2026-07-27200.1155.4
2026-08-03206.6158.5
2026-08-10211.9160.8
2026-08-17203.8160
2026-08-24200.2159.2
2026-08-31203.6160
2026-09-07205.1158.3
2026-09-14207.2156.3
2026-09-21213.1156
2026-09-28216.1154.2
2026-10-05214.1156.6
2026-10-12196.2158.6
2026-10-19193.1160.8
2026-10-23193.7159.8
Poměr momentum / hodnota vs 26týdenní průměrRostoucí čára = momentum vede (normální stav). Pokles pod čárkovaný průměr = hodnota přebírá vedení – historicky časté varování před změnou režimu trhu.
Zobrazit data v tabulce
DatumPoměr momentum / hodnota26týdenní průměr
2024-01-01100101
2024-01-08104.7101.2
2024-01-15108.1101.6
2024-01-22108.4102
2024-01-29111.3102.5
2024-02-05114.8103.1
2024-02-12113.2103.7
2024-02-19113.1104.2
2024-02-26116.5104.8
2024-03-04115.1105.3
2024-03-11112.9105.9
2024-03-18114.6106.5
2024-03-25112.2106.9
2024-04-01113.9107.4
2024-04-08114.7107.9
2024-04-15108.5108.2
2024-04-22110.9108.6
2024-04-29111.3109
2024-05-06111.5109.2
2024-05-13111.6109.5
2024-05-20115.5109.9
2024-05-27112.9110.3
2024-06-03115.1110.7
2024-06-10118.6111.4
2024-06-17117.8111.9
2024-06-24117.8112.5
2024-07-01120.1113.3
2024-07-08117.7113.8
2024-07-15112.3113.9
2024-07-22109.3114
2024-07-29106.3113.8
2024-08-05109.6113.6
2024-08-12112.7113.6
2024-08-19112.5113.5
2024-08-26110.7113.3
2024-09-02107.8113
2024-09-09111.3113
2024-09-16112.5112.9
2024-09-23112.2112.9
2024-09-30112.8112.9
2024-10-07113.7112.8
2024-10-14113.8113
2024-10-21114.6113.2
2024-10-28113.2113.2
2024-11-04115.7113.4
2024-11-11114.4113.5
2024-11-18115.4113.5
2024-11-25115.1113.6
2024-12-02118113.7
2024-12-09118.3113.7
2024-12-16119.1113.7
2024-12-23118.9113.8
2024-12-30119.6113.8
2025-01-06119113.8
2025-01-13120114.1
2025-01-20121.4114.6
2025-01-27119.6115.1
2025-02-03123.1115.6
2025-02-10124.2116
2025-02-17120.3116.3
2025-02-24118.3116.6
2025-03-03113116.8
2025-03-10113.7116.9
2025-03-17114.8117
2025-03-24113117
2025-03-31111117
2025-04-07116.5117.1
2025-04-14116.1117.2
2025-04-21120.7117.4
2025-04-28123.4117.8
2025-05-05124.3118.1
2025-05-12128.1118.6
2025-05-19128.4119.1
2025-05-26129.9119.7
2025-06-02129.3120.2
2025-06-09127.7120.5
2025-06-16128120.9
2025-06-23129.6121.3
2025-06-30127.7121.6
2025-07-07127121.9
2025-07-14128.9122.2
2025-07-21128122.5
2025-07-28130.4122.9
2025-08-04132.2123.2
2025-08-11130.2123.5
2025-08-18127.2123.7
2025-08-25127.5124.1
2025-09-01128.2124.7
2025-09-08131.4125.4
2025-09-15132.8126.1
2025-09-22131.1126.7
2025-09-29129.6127.5
2025-10-06130.6128
2025-10-13130.1128.5
2025-10-20129.8128.9
2025-10-27130.8129.2
2025-11-03127.4129.3
2025-11-10125.6129.2
2025-11-17122.6129
2025-11-24125.5128.8
2025-12-01126.9128.7
2025-12-08123.8128.6
2025-12-15125.8128.5
2025-12-22126.1128.4
2025-12-29124.9128.2
2026-01-05124.5128.2
2026-01-12124.2128
2026-01-19123.3127.8
2026-01-26122.1127.5
2026-02-02117.1126.9
2026-02-09116.3126.4
2026-02-16117.4126
2026-02-23116.3125.5
2026-03-02115.1125
2026-03-09117.6124.5
2026-03-16118.5124
2026-03-23115.7123.4
2026-03-30118.4122.9
2026-04-06124.2122.7
2026-04-13127.5122.6
2026-04-20131122.6
2026-04-27131.3122.7
2026-05-04138.3123.1
2026-05-11136.9123.5
2026-05-18136.6124
2026-05-25141.4124.7
2026-06-01137.1125.1
2026-06-08141.8125.7
2026-06-15148.5126.6
2026-06-22141127.2
2026-06-29136.5127.6
2026-07-06138.7128.2
2026-07-13131128.4
2026-07-20131128.7
2026-07-27128.7129
2026-08-03130.3129.5
2026-08-10131.8130.1
2026-08-17127.4130.5
2026-08-24125.7130.9
2026-08-31127.2131.3
2026-09-07129.6131.8
2026-09-14132.5132.3
2026-09-21136.6133.1
2026-09-28140.1134
2026-10-05136.8134.5
2026-10-12123.7134.3
2026-10-19120.1133.9
2026-10-23121.3133.5