Likvidita

Akcie dlouhodobě rostou tam, kam přitékají volné peníze. Tahle stránka sleduje, jestli se ve finančním systému hotovost hromadí, nebo z něj mizí – od rezerv bank u Fedu přes růst peněžní zásoby proti inflaci až po „suchý prach“ zaparkovaný ve fondech peněžního trhu. Žádný z ukazatelů není obchodní signál; dohromady ale říkají, jestli trhu fouká do plachet.

Čistá likvidita ve finančním systému USA (bil. USD)Bilance Fedu minus účet ministerstva financí (TGA) a reverzní repo (ON RRP), týdně. Peníze v TGA a RRP jsou z trhu odčerpané – čára ukazuje skutečně volné rezervy. Čárkovaně celková bilance Fedu pro srovnání.
Zobrazit data v tabulce
DatumČistá likviditaBilance Fedu celkem
2024-01-036.27.68
2024-01-106.267.69
2024-01-176.337.67
2024-01-246.247.68
2024-01-316.177.63
2024-02-076.287.63
2024-02-146.227.63
2024-02-216.227.58
2024-02-286.217.57
2024-03-066.317.54
2024-03-136.257.54
2024-03-206.217.51
2024-03-276.167.48
2024-04-036.237.44
2024-04-106.297.44
2024-04-176.177.41
2024-04-246.027.4
2024-05-016.017.36
2024-05-086.017.35
2024-05-156.077.3
2024-05-226.087.3
2024-05-296.127.28
2024-06-056.177.26
2024-06-126.147.26
2024-06-196.157.25
2024-06-265.987.23
2024-07-036.037.22
2024-07-106.077.22
2024-07-176.067.21
2024-07-246.037.21
2024-07-315.987.18
2024-08-076.127.18
2024-08-146.067.18
2024-08-216.087.14
2024-08-285.997.12
2024-09-046.047.11
2024-09-116.087.12
2024-09-186.037.11
2024-09-255.867.08
2024-10-025.877.05
2024-10-095.97.05
2024-10-165.987.04
2024-10-235.937.03
2024-10-305.957.01
2024-11-065.976.99
2024-11-135.96.97
2024-11-205.956.92
2024-11-275.966.91
2024-12-045.946.9
2024-12-115.946.9
2024-12-185.996.89
2024-12-255.946.89
2025-01-015.666.85
2025-01-086.026.85
2025-01-156.076.83
2025-01-226.036.83
2025-01-295.916.82
2025-02-055.936.81
2025-02-125.926.81
2025-02-195.926.78
2025-02-265.966.77
2025-03-056.076.76
2025-03-126.126.76
2025-03-196.136.76
2025-03-266.146.74
2025-04-026.186.72
2025-04-096.256.73
2025-04-166.256.73
2025-04-235.956.73
2025-04-305.866.71
2025-05-075.976.71
2025-05-145.976.71
2025-05-216.026.69
2025-05-286.036.67
2025-06-046.136.67
2025-06-116.146.68
2025-06-186.146.68
2025-06-256.096.66
2025-07-026.066.66
2025-07-096.116.66
2025-07-166.176.66
2025-07-236.146.66
2025-07-306.126.64
2025-08-066.136.64
2025-08-136.086.64
2025-08-206.066.62
2025-08-275.986.6
2025-09-035.996.6
2025-09-105.96.61
2025-09-175.846.61
2025-09-245.776.61
2025-10-015.776.59
2025-10-085.786.59
2025-10-155.786.6
2025-10-225.686.59
2025-10-295.616.59
2025-11-055.626.57
2025-11-125.626.58
2025-11-195.616.56
2025-11-265.656.55
2025-12-035.66.54
2025-12-105.686.54
2025-12-175.716.56
2025-12-245.746.58
2025-12-315.76.64
2026-01-075.776.57
2026-01-145.86.58
2026-01-215.716.58
2026-01-285.666.59
2026-02-045.696.61
2026-02-115.716.62
2026-02-185.76.61
2026-02-255.736.61
2026-03-045.86.63
2026-03-115.816.65
2026-03-185.86.66
2026-03-255.786.66
2026-04-015.836.68
2026-04-085.956.69
2026-04-155.956.71
2026-04-225.76.71
2026-04-295.726.7
2026-05-065.836.71
2026-05-135.896.73
2026-05-205.916.71
2026-05-275.876.7
2026-06-035.836.71
2026-06-105.96.73
2026-06-175.856.74
2026-06-245.816.74
2026-07-015.846.72
2026-07-085.966.74
2026-07-155.996.74
2026-07-225.926.75
2026-07-295.826.74
2026-08-055.846.75
2026-08-125.86.76
2026-08-195.796.75
2026-08-265.786.73
2026-09-025.776.74
2026-09-095.866.74
2026-09-165.866.75
2026-09-235.776.75
2026-09-305.786.74
2026-10-075.866.75
2026-10-145.876.76
2026-10-215.86.75
USA: růst peněz vs inflace (meziročně, %)Roste-li peněžní zásoba M2 rychleji než spotřebitelské ceny (plná čára nad čárkovanou), reálné likvidity přibývá a přebytek historicky teče do finančních aktiv. Opačná situace (2022) likviditu z trhu vysává.
Zobrazit data v tabulce
DatumPeněžní zásoba M2 (meziročně)Inflace CPI (meziročně)
2024-01-01-2.063.09
2024-02-01-1.53.16
2024-03-010.113.49
2024-04-010.953.36
2024-05-010.923.24
2024-06-011.312.97
2024-07-011.482.94
2024-08-011.972.61
2024-09-012.522.43
2024-10-012.892.58
2024-11-013.42.72
2024-12-013.412.87
2025-01-013.382.99
2025-02-013.282.8
2025-03-013.432.38
2025-04-013.892.33
2025-05-013.872.38
2025-06-014.142.68
2025-07-014.392.74
2025-08-014.252.94
2025-09-014.233.02
2025-11-013.852.7
2025-12-014.042.65
2026-01-014.062.39
2026-02-014.592.43
2026-03-014.413.29
2026-04-014.533.78
2026-05-015.394.17
2026-06-015.343.46
2026-07-015.413.3
2026-08-015.663.35
Eurozóna: růst peněz vs inflace (meziročně, %)Totéž pro eurozónu: peněžní zásoba M3 vs inflace HICP. Evropská a americká likvidita se občas rozejdou – pak se rozcházejí i trhy.
Zobrazit data v tabulce
DatumPeněžní zásoba M3 (meziročně)Inflace HICP (meziročně)
2024-01-010.122.8
2024-02-010.322.6
2024-03-010.842.4
2024-04-011.432.4
2024-05-011.52.6
2024-06-012.42.5
2024-07-012.552.6
2024-08-013.222.2
2024-09-013.471.7
2024-10-013.742
2024-11-014.292.2
2024-12-014.132.4
2025-01-014.172.5
2025-02-014.412.3
2025-03-014.092.2
2025-04-014.152.2
2025-05-014.161.9
2025-06-013.452
2025-07-013.412
2025-08-012.822
2025-09-012.682.2
2025-10-013.022.1
2025-11-012.912.1
2025-12-012.62
2026-01-013.23–
2026-02-013.02–
2026-03-013.63–
2026-04-013.35–
2026-05-013.59–
2026-06-014.03–
2026-07-014.05–
2026-08-014.21–
Kde se hromadí hotovost (meziroční růst, %)Vklady v amerických bankách (celá ekonomika) a retailové fondy peněžního trhu (hotovost investorů „na parkovišti“). Zrychlující růst obou = hotovost se hromadí; jejich rozestup ukazuje rotaci mezi bankou a brokerem.
Zobrazit data v tabulce
DatumVklady v bankách (meziročně)Retail fondy peněžního trhu (meziročně)
2024-01-01-1.1836.19
2024-02-01-134.05
2024-03-011.9930.8
2024-04-012.0128.09
2024-05-011.2725.38
2024-06-011.6723.87
2024-07-012.0522.82
2024-08-012.221.18
2024-09-012.2520.29
2024-10-013.0219.43
2024-11-013.3318.52
2024-12-012.5417.99
2025-01-012.3117.41
2025-02-012.7417.22
2025-03-012.6318.31
2025-04-013.1217.54
2025-05-013.4716.96
2025-06-013.7816.69
2025-07-013.5616.44
2025-08-013.9816.21
2025-09-013.8415.52
2025-10-013.3514.5
2025-11-013.6913.75
2025-12-013.9613.37
2026-01-014.212.25
2026-02-014.8610.69
2026-03-015.218.85
2026-04-015.68.17
2026-05-016.437.82
2026-06-016.257.11
2026-07-015.96.1
2026-08-016.565.63
Trh vs peněžní zásoba: S&P 500 / M2 (index, od 2015)Jak daleko utekl trh svému peněžnímu krytí. Poměr vysoko nad pětiletým průměrem (čárkovaně) znamená, že růst stojí na vyšších valuacích, ne na nových penězích – trh je pak citlivější na výpadek likvidity.
Zobrazit data v tabulce
DatumS&P 500 / M2 (index)Pětiletý průměr poměru
2015-01-01130.6118.2
2015-02-01136.5118.7
2015-03-01134.1119.1
2015-04-01134.9119.5
2015-05-01136119.8
2015-06-01132.7120.1
2015-07-01134.8120.5
2015-08-01125.9120.6
2015-09-01121.9120.6
2015-10-01131.5120.8
2015-11-01130.5121
2015-12-01127.5121.2
2016-01-01119.8121.1
2016-02-01118.5121.1
2016-03-01125.7121.2
2016-04-01125.3121.2
2016-05-01126.6121.3
2016-06-01126.3121.4
2016-07-01130.2121.6
2016-08-01129.2121.7
2016-09-01128.4121.8
2016-10-01125.2121.9
2016-11-01128.6122.4
2016-12-01130.7122.9
2017-01-01132.3123.3
2017-02-01136.4123.8
2017-03-01135.7124.2
2017-04-01136.3124.7
2017-05-01137.4125.3
2017-06-01138125.8
2017-07-01140126.4
2017-08-01139.5126.9
2017-09-01141.7127.5
2017-10-01144.2128.1
2017-11-01147.8128.8
2017-12-01148.8129.6
2018-01-01157130.3
2018-02-01150.4131
2018-03-01145.7131.5
2018-04-01145.9132
2018-05-01148.4132.5
2018-06-01148.7133
2018-07-01153.6133.6
2018-08-01157.7134.3
2018-09-01158.1134.9
2018-10-01147135.3
2018-11-01149.3135.7
2018-12-01134.7135.8
2019-01-01144.6136.1
2019-02-01148.4136.4
2019-03-01150.5136.8
2019-04-01156137.2
2019-05-01144.7137.5
2019-06-01153.7137.8
2019-07-01154.8138.2
2019-08-01151.1138.5
2019-09-01152.9138.8
2019-10-01154.6139.2
2019-11-01158.7139.5
2019-12-01162.7140
2020-01-01161.7140.5
2020-02-01147.4140.7
2020-03-01124.6140.5
2020-04-01131.9140.5
2020-05-01131.2140.4
2020-06-01131.8140.4
2020-07-01137.9140.4
2020-08-01147140.8
2020-09-01139.7141.1
2020-10-01134.7141.1
2020-11-01147.3141.4
2020-12-01151.9141.8
2021-01-01148.2142.3
2021-02-01150142.8
2021-03-01154.5143.3
2021-04-01160.2143.9
2021-05-01158.9144.4
2021-06-01162.3145
2021-07-01164.7145.6
2021-08-01167.7146.2
2021-09-01158.7146.7
2021-10-01168.2147.5
2021-11-01165.4148.1
2021-12-01171.3148.7
2022-01-01161.3149.2
2022-02-01155.6149.5
2022-03-01160.7150
2022-04-01146.7150.1
2022-05-01147.1150.3
2022-06-01135.2150.2
2022-07-01147.5150.4
2022-08-01141.3150.4
2022-09-01128.7150.2
2022-10-01139.5150.1
2022-11-01147.3150.1
2022-12-01139.4149.9
2023-01-01148.1149.8
2023-02-01144.5149.7
2023-03-01151.7149.8
2023-04-01155.3150
2023-05-01155.1150.1
2023-06-01165.4150.3
2023-07-01170.6150.6
2023-08-01167.7150.8
2023-09-01159.7150.8
2023-10-01156.3151
2023-11-01170.2151.3
2023-12-01177.4152
2024-01-01179.8152.6
2024-02-01188.3153.3
2024-03-01193.7154
2024-04-01185.8154.5
2024-05-01194.1155.3
2024-06-01200.3156.1
2024-07-01202.3156.9
2024-08-01206157.8
2024-09-01209.4158.8
2024-10-01206.7159.6
2024-11-01217.4160.6
2024-12-01211.6161.4
2025-01-01216.8162.3
2025-02-01213163.4
2025-03-01200.1164.7
2025-04-01197.7165.8
2025-05-01209.3167.1
2025-06-01218.6168.5
2025-07-01222.5169.9
2025-08-01226.1171.3
2025-09-01233.2172.8
2025-10-01237.7174.5
2025-11-01237.6176
2025-12-01236.7177.5
2026-01-01239.3179
2026-02-01235.3180.4
2026-03-01222.9181.5
2026-04-01244.9182.9
2026-05-01254.6184.5
2026-06-01250.8186
2026-07-01249.4187.4
2026-08-01254.5188.9
Dolar jako globální likvidita (DXY)Většina světového financování běží v dolarech: silný dolar = utažené podmínky pro zbytek světa (tlak na rozvíjející se trhy), slabý dolar = uvolněné. Čárkovaně 52týdenní průměr.
Zobrazit data v tabulce
DatumDolarový index (DXY)52týdenní průměr
2024-01-01102.41103.4
2024-01-08102.4103.4
2024-01-15103.29103.43
2024-01-22103.47103.46
2024-01-29103.92103.48
2024-02-05104.08103.48
2024-02-12104.28103.49
2024-02-19103.94103.47
2024-02-26103.86103.45
2024-03-04102.74103.42
2024-03-11103.43103.41
2024-03-18104.43103.44
2024-03-25104.55103.48
2024-04-01104.3103.52
2024-04-08106.04103.61
2024-04-15106.15103.69
2024-04-22105.94103.77
2024-04-29105.03103.85
2024-05-06105.31103.9
2024-05-13104.45103.92
2024-05-20104.72103.93
2024-05-27104.67103.94
2024-06-03104.89103.97
2024-06-10105.55104.03
2024-06-17105.8104.09
2024-06-24105.87104.14
2024-07-01104.88104.19
2024-07-08104.09104.27
2024-07-15104.4104.34
2024-07-22104.32104.39
2024-07-29103.21104.41
2024-08-05103.14104.42
2024-08-12102.46104.4
2024-08-19100.72104.34
2024-08-26101.7104.29
2024-09-02101.18104.21
2024-09-09101.11104.13
2024-09-16100.72104.04
2024-09-23100.42103.93
2024-09-30102.52103.86
2024-10-07102.89103.79
2024-10-14103.49103.74
2024-10-21104.26103.69
2024-10-28104.28103.68
2024-11-04105103.66
2024-11-11106.69103.72
2024-11-18107.49103.8
2024-11-25105.74103.84
2024-12-02105.97103.88
2024-12-09107103.97
2024-12-16107.62104.08
2024-12-23108104.21
2024-12-30108.95104.33
2025-01-06109.65104.47
2025-01-13109.35104.59
2025-01-20107.44104.67
2025-01-27108.37104.75
2025-02-03108.04104.83
2025-02-10106.57104.87
2025-02-17106.61104.92
2025-02-24107.61105
2025-03-03103.84105.02
2025-03-10103.72105.02
2025-03-17104.09105.02
2025-03-24104.04105.01
2025-03-31103.02104.98
2025-04-0799.78104.86
2025-04-1499.23104.73
2025-04-2199.47104.6
2025-04-28100104.51
2025-05-05100.34104.41
2025-05-12101.09104.35
2025-05-1999.11104.24
2025-05-2699.33104.14
2025-06-0299.19104.03
2025-06-0998.18103.88
2025-06-1698.71103.75
2025-06-2397.4103.59
2025-06-3097.18103.44
2025-07-0797.85103.32
2025-07-1498.48103.2
2025-07-2197.65103.07
2025-07-2898.69102.99
2025-08-0498.18102.89
2025-08-1197.85102.8
2025-08-1897.72102.75
2025-08-2597.77102.67
2025-09-0197.77102.61
2025-09-0897.55102.54
2025-09-1597.64102.48
2025-09-2298.15102.43
2025-09-2997.72102.34
2025-10-0698.98102.27
2025-10-1398.43102.17
2025-10-2098.95102.07
2025-10-2799.8101.98
2025-11-0399.6101.88
2025-11-1099.27101.73
2025-11-17100.18101.59
2025-11-2499.46101.47
2025-12-0198.99101.34
2025-12-0898.4101.17
2025-12-1598.6101
2025-12-2298.02100.81
2025-12-2998.42100.61
2026-01-0599.13100.4
2026-01-1299.39100.21
2026-01-1997.6100.02
2026-01-2696.9999.8
2026-02-0297.6399.6
2026-02-0996.8899.42
2026-02-1697.899.25
2026-02-2397.6199.06
2026-03-0298.9998.96
2026-03-09100.3698.9
2026-03-1699.6598.81
2026-03-23100.1598.74
2026-03-30100.0398.68
2026-04-0698.6598.66
2026-04-1398.198.64
2026-04-2098.5198.62
2026-04-2798.2198.58
2026-05-0497.8498.54
2026-05-1199.2798.5
2026-05-1899.3298.5
2026-05-2598.9198.5
2026-06-01100.0798.51
2026-06-0899.7598.54
2026-06-15100.8598.58
2026-06-22101.3698.66
2026-06-29100.8698.73
2026-07-06100.9798.79
2026-07-13100.7598.84
2026-07-20101.4798.91
2026-07-2799.898.93
2026-08-0399.698.96
2026-08-1099.6798.99
2026-08-1798.899.01
2026-08-2499.799.05
2026-08-3199.1699.08
2026-09-0799.1299.11
2026-09-14100.2299.16
2026-09-21100.9799.21
2026-09-28101.9399.29
2026-10-05102.2199.35
2026-10-12101.8499.42
2026-10-19101.6199.47
2026-10-23101.8299.51

Úrokové sazby: cena peněz

Sazby jsou druhá strana likvidity – neurčují, kolik peněz v systému je, ale kolik stojí. Dvouletý výnos říká, co trh čeká od Fedu; desetiletý je diskontní sazba pro akcie: čím vyšší, tím míň jsou dnes hodné budoucí zisky – a tím hůř se dýchá růstovým a momentum akciím s dlouhou durací.

Výnosy amerických dluhopisů: 2 roky vs 10 let (%)2letý výnos kopíruje očekávané sazby Fedu, 10letý v sobě nese i růst a inflační prémii. FRED, týdenní průměry denních dat.
Zobrazit data v tabulce
Datum10letý výnos USA2letý výnos USA
2024-01-013.984.36
2024-01-0844.3
2024-01-154.124.32
2024-01-224.144.33
2024-01-294.014.3
2024-02-054.134.44
2024-02-124.264.57
2024-02-194.294.65
2024-02-264.264.64
2024-03-044.134.54
2024-03-114.214.62
2024-03-184.284.64
2024-03-254.224.56
2024-04-014.354.7
2024-04-084.484.86
2024-04-154.634.96
2024-04-224.654.93
2024-04-294.614.93
2024-05-064.484.83
2024-05-134.424.8
2024-05-204.444.87
2024-05-274.554.93
2024-06-034.354.78
2024-06-104.324.76
2024-06-174.254.71
2024-06-244.294.7
2024-07-014.394.71
2024-07-084.254.56
2024-07-154.24.45
2024-07-224.254.41
2024-07-294.044.21
2024-08-053.913.99
2024-08-123.884
2024-08-193.833.97
2024-08-263.853.87
2024-09-023.773.76
2024-09-093.673.62
2024-09-163.693.58
2024-09-233.763.55
2024-09-303.833.71
2024-10-074.063.98
2024-10-144.053.95
2024-10-214.224.06
2024-10-284.34.15
2024-11-044.324.22
2024-11-114.434.31
2024-11-184.414.32
2024-11-254.254.19
2024-12-024.194.14
2024-12-094.284.17
2024-12-164.484.29
2024-12-234.594.3
2024-12-304.584.25
2025-01-064.684.31
2025-01-134.694.31
2025-01-204.614.29
2025-01-274.554.19
2025-02-034.494.23
2025-02-104.534.3
2025-02-174.54.26
2025-02-244.34.06
2025-03-034.253.97
2025-03-104.283.96
2025-03-174.274
2025-03-244.333.97
2025-03-314.133.81
2025-04-074.333.83
2025-04-144.343.81
2025-04-214.373.77
2025-04-284.233.69
2025-05-054.333.83
2025-05-124.474
2025-05-194.513.99
2025-05-264.433.92
2025-06-024.443.95
2025-06-094.433.96
2025-06-164.43.94
2025-06-234.33.75
2025-06-304.293.79
2025-07-074.393.88
2025-07-144.463.9
2025-07-214.393.88
2025-07-284.353.87
2025-08-044.233.72
2025-08-114.283.73
2025-08-184.33.75
2025-08-254.253.63
2025-09-014.193.59
2025-09-084.053.53
2025-09-154.083.54
2025-09-224.163.6
2025-09-294.133.58
2025-10-064.133.57
2025-10-134.023.46
2025-10-2043.46
2025-10-274.063.55
2025-11-034.123.59
2025-11-104.123.58
2025-11-174.113.56
2025-11-244.023.45
2025-12-014.13.52
2025-12-084.163.55
2025-12-154.153.48
2025-12-224.163.46
2025-12-294.163.46
2026-01-054.173.49
2026-01-124.193.55
2026-01-194.263.6
2026-01-264.243.54
2026-02-024.263.54
2026-02-094.143.46
2026-02-164.083.46
2026-02-234.023.42
2026-03-024.13.53
2026-03-094.213.65
2026-03-164.273.76
2026-03-234.383.88
2026-03-304.333.81
2026-04-064.313.81
2026-04-134.293.76
2026-04-204.33.78
2026-04-274.383.86
2026-05-044.413.91
2026-05-114.484
2026-05-184.64.09
2026-05-254.474
2026-06-014.494.08
2026-06-084.514.11
2026-06-154.464.13
2026-06-224.444.13
2026-06-294.454.14
2026-07-064.544.18
2026-07-134.574.18
2026-07-204.664.3
2026-07-274.674.26
2026-08-034.664.21
2026-08-104.684.2
2026-08-174.74.2
2026-08-244.684.23
2026-08-314.784.37
2026-09-074.884.5
2026-09-144.994.7
2026-09-215.084.8
2026-09-285.264.86
2026-10-055.264.79
2026-10-125.154.78
2026-10-195.094.75
Sklon výnosové křivky: 10 let − 2 roky (p. b.)Pod nulou = inverze, nejslavnější recesní indikátor (krátké peníze dražší než dlouhé). Pozor na paradox: samotná inverze trhy nebolí – zpomalení historicky přicházelo až po odinvertování, když Fed začal panicky snižovat.
Zobrazit data v tabulce
Datum10letý − 2letý výnos (p. b.)Nula (pod ní inverze)
2024-01-01-0.390
2024-01-08-0.30
2024-01-15-0.210
2024-01-22-0.180
2024-01-29-0.290
2024-02-05-0.310
2024-02-12-0.310
2024-02-19-0.350
2024-02-26-0.380
2024-03-04-0.410
2024-03-11-0.410
2024-03-18-0.360
2024-03-25-0.340
2024-04-01-0.350
2024-04-08-0.380
2024-04-15-0.330
2024-04-22-0.280
2024-04-29-0.320
2024-05-06-0.350
2024-05-13-0.380
2024-05-20-0.430
2024-05-27-0.380
2024-06-03-0.430
2024-06-10-0.430
2024-06-17-0.460
2024-06-24-0.410
2024-07-01-0.320
2024-07-08-0.310
2024-07-15-0.250
2024-07-22-0.160
2024-07-29-0.170
2024-08-05-0.080
2024-08-12-0.130
2024-08-19-0.140
2024-08-26-0.020
2024-09-0200
2024-09-090.050
2024-09-160.110
2024-09-230.220
2024-09-300.130
2024-10-070.080
2024-10-140.110
2024-10-210.160
2024-10-280.150
2024-11-040.10
2024-11-110.120
2024-11-180.10
2024-11-250.070
2024-12-020.040
2024-12-090.110
2024-12-160.180
2024-12-230.290
2024-12-300.320
2025-01-060.380
2025-01-130.380
2025-01-200.330
2025-01-270.350
2025-02-030.260
2025-02-100.230
2025-02-170.240
2025-02-240.230
2025-03-030.280
2025-03-100.320
2025-03-170.270
2025-03-240.360
2025-03-310.320
2025-04-070.50
2025-04-140.530
2025-04-210.60
2025-04-280.540
2025-05-050.50
2025-05-120.470
2025-05-190.530
2025-05-260.510
2025-06-020.490
2025-06-090.460
2025-06-160.460
2025-06-230.540
2025-06-300.50
2025-07-070.50
2025-07-140.560
2025-07-210.520
2025-07-280.480
2025-08-040.520
2025-08-110.560
2025-08-180.560
2025-08-250.620
2025-09-010.60
2025-09-080.520
2025-09-150.540
2025-09-220.570
2025-09-290.550
2025-10-060.550
2025-10-130.560
2025-10-200.530
2025-10-270.510
2025-11-030.540
2025-11-100.530
2025-11-170.540
2025-11-240.560
2025-12-010.570
2025-12-080.610
2025-12-150.670
2025-12-220.70
2025-12-290.70
2026-01-050.690
2026-01-120.640
2026-01-190.660
2026-01-260.70
2026-02-020.720
2026-02-090.670
2026-02-160.610
2026-02-230.60
2026-03-020.570
2026-03-090.550
2026-03-160.510
2026-03-230.50
2026-03-300.520
2026-04-060.510
2026-04-130.530
2026-04-200.520
2026-04-270.520
2026-05-040.490
2026-05-110.480
2026-05-180.510
2026-05-250.470
2026-06-010.410
2026-06-080.40
2026-06-150.340
2026-06-220.310
2026-06-290.310
2026-07-060.360
2026-07-130.390
2026-07-200.360
2026-07-270.410
2026-08-030.450
2026-08-100.480
2026-08-170.50
2026-08-240.450
2026-08-310.410
2026-09-070.380
2026-09-140.290
2026-09-210.280
2026-09-280.40
2026-10-050.470
2026-10-120.370
2026-10-190.340
Sazby centrálních bank: Fed vs ECB (%)Efektivní sazba Fedu a depozitní sazba ECB. Rozestup obou sazeb pohání i kurz eura a dolaru – propojuje se s grafem DXY výše.
Zobrazit data v tabulce
DatumFed (efektivní sazba)ECB (depozitní sazba)
2024-01-015.334
2024-01-085.334
2024-01-155.334
2024-01-225.334
2024-01-295.334
2024-02-055.334
2024-02-125.334
2024-02-195.334
2024-02-265.334
2024-03-045.334
2024-03-115.334
2024-03-185.334
2024-03-255.334
2024-04-015.334
2024-04-085.334
2024-04-155.334
2024-04-225.334
2024-04-295.334
2024-05-065.334
2024-05-135.334
2024-05-205.334
2024-05-275.334
2024-06-035.334
2024-06-105.333.82
2024-06-175.333.75
2024-06-245.333.75
2024-07-015.333.75
2024-07-085.333.75
2024-07-155.333.75
2024-07-225.333.75
2024-07-295.333.75
2024-08-055.333.75
2024-08-125.333.75
2024-08-195.333.75
2024-08-265.333.75
2024-09-025.333.75
2024-09-095.333.75
2024-09-165.043.57
2024-09-234.833.5
2024-09-304.833.5
2024-10-074.833.5
2024-10-144.833.5
2024-10-214.833.32
2024-10-284.833.25
2024-11-044.723.25
2024-11-114.583.25
2024-11-184.583.25
2024-11-254.583.25
2024-12-024.583.25
2024-12-094.583.25
2024-12-164.443.07
2024-12-234.333
2024-12-304.333
2025-01-064.333
2025-01-134.333
2025-01-204.333
2025-01-274.333
2025-02-034.332.82
2025-02-104.332.75
2025-02-174.332.75
2025-02-244.332.75
2025-03-034.332.75
2025-03-104.332.57
2025-03-174.332.5
2025-03-244.332.5
2025-03-314.332.5
2025-04-074.332.5
2025-04-144.332.5
2025-04-214.332.32
2025-04-284.332.25
2025-05-054.332.25
2025-05-124.332.25
2025-05-194.332.25
2025-05-264.332.25
2025-06-024.332.25
2025-06-094.332.07
2025-06-164.332
2025-06-234.332
2025-06-304.332
2025-07-074.332
2025-07-144.332
2025-07-214.332
2025-07-284.332
2025-08-044.332
2025-08-114.332
2025-08-184.332
2025-08-254.332
2025-09-014.332
2025-09-084.332
2025-09-154.192
2025-09-224.092
2025-09-294.092
2025-10-064.12
2025-10-134.112
2025-10-204.112
2025-10-273.972
2025-11-033.872
2025-11-103.882
2025-11-173.882
2025-11-243.882
2025-12-013.892
2025-12-083.752
2025-12-153.642
2025-12-223.642
2025-12-293.642
2026-01-053.642
2026-01-123.642
2026-01-193.642
2026-01-263.642
2026-02-023.642
2026-02-093.642
2026-02-163.642
2026-02-233.642
2026-03-023.642
2026-03-093.642
2026-03-163.642
2026-03-233.642
2026-03-303.642
2026-04-063.642
2026-04-133.642
2026-04-203.642
2026-04-273.642
2026-05-043.632
2026-05-113.632
2026-05-183.622
2026-05-253.622
2026-06-013.622
2026-06-083.622
2026-06-153.632.18
2026-06-223.632.25
2026-06-293.632.25
2026-07-063.622.25
2026-07-133.632.25
2026-07-203.632.25
2026-07-273.632.25
2026-08-033.632.25
2026-08-103.632.25
2026-08-173.632.25
2026-08-243.632.25
2026-08-313.632.25
2026-09-073.632.25
2026-09-143.772.43
2026-09-213.882.5
2026-09-283.882.5
2026-10-053.882.5
2026-10-123.882.5
2026-10-193.882.5

Sázkové trhy: makro

Nejobchodovanější otevřené makro otázky na Polymarketu (sazby Fedu, recese, cla) – pravděpodobnosti oceněné penězi sázkařů. Výběr je mechanický podle objemu za 24 hodin, týdenní snímek.

OtázkaOdpověď trhuŠanceObjem 24 h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Yes93 %3,6 mil. $